Evaluation of a multi-component early warning system for pastoralist populations in Doolo zone, Ethiopia: mixed-methods study.

BACKGROUND: This study evaluated an early warning, alert and response system for a crisis-affected population in Doolo zone, Somali Region, Ethiopia, in 2019-2021, with a history of epidemics of outbreak-prone diseases. To adequately cover an area populated by a semi-nomadic pastoralist, or livestock herding, population with sparse access to healthcare facilities, the surveillance system included four components: health facility indicator-based surveillance, community indicator- and event-based surveillance, and alerts from other actors in the area. This evaluation described the usefulness, acceptability, completeness, timeliness, positive predictive value, and representativeness of these components. METHODS: We carried out a mixed-methods study retrospectively analysing data from the surveillance system February 2019-January 2021 along with key informant interviews with system implementers, and focus group discussions with local communities. Transcripts were analyzed using a mixed deductive and inductive approach. Surveillance quality indicators assessed included completeness, timeliness, and positive predictive value, among others. RESULTS: 1010 signals were analysed; these resulted in 168 verified events, 58 alerts, and 29 responses. Most of the alerts (46/58) and responses (22/29) were initiated through the community event-based branch of the surveillance system. In comparison, one alert and one response was initiated via the community indicator-based branch. Positive predictive value of signals received was about 6%. About 80% of signals were verified within 24 h of reports, and 40% were risk assessed within 48 h. System responses included new mobile clinic sites, measles vaccination catch-ups, and water and sanitation-related interventions. Focus group discussions emphasized that responses generated were an expected return by participant communities for their role in data collection and reporting. Participant communities found the system acceptable when it led to the responses they expected. Some event types, such as those around animal health, led to the community's response expectations not being met. CONCLUSIONS: Event-based surveillance can produce useful data for localized public health action for pastoralist populations. Improvements could include greater community involvement in the system design and potentially incorporating One Health approaches.

Screening for Elevated Blood Lead Levels: False-Positive Rates of Tests on Capillary Samples, Minnesota, 2011-2017.

CONTEXT: A typical strategy for identifying children with elevated blood lead levels (BLL) is to use a test on a capillary sample as a screening tool and then perform a confirmatory test on a venous sample following an elevated capillary screen. However, tests on capillary samples are prone to false-positive results, which affect surveillance estimates of the prevalence of elevated BLL. OBJECTIVE: We sought to measure the prevalence and risk of false-positive results in elevated tests on capillary samples based on various potential predictors. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, AND MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We analyzed blood lead results for children aged 0 to 6 years tested during 2011 to 2017 in Minnesota. A false positive was defined as a test on a capillary sample of at least 5 µg/dL, followed by a test result on a venous sample less than 5 µg/dL within 90 days. Binomial regression was used to estimate the probability of false-positive results dependent on the initial test result and the time between initial and confirmatory tests. RESULTS: Results from 3898 children were included in analyses. Of these, 2330 (60%) had confirmatory results below 5 µg/dL and were classified as false positives. The proportion of false positives varied with time between tests, dependent on the initial result. Extrapolating the model to zero days between tests, without time for any change in the child's true BLL, we predicted 55% false positives in this study group (95% confidence interval: 53%-57%). CONCLUSION: Caution is warranted when interpreting elevated tests on capillary samples without confirmatory tests on venous samples. Providers should be encouraged to follow up all elevated capillary screens with confirmatory tests on venous samples.

Lead Exposure Among Workers at a Shipyard-Wisconsin, 2015 to 2016.

OBJECTIVE: In March 2016, the state health departments of Wisconsin and Minnesota learned of three shipyard workers with blood lead levels (BLLs) more than 40 µg/dL. An investigation was conducted to determine the extent of and risk factors for the exposure. METHODS: We defined a case as an elevated BLL more than or equal to 5 µg/dL in a shipyard worker. Workers were interviewed regarding their symptoms and personal protective equipment (PPE) use. RESULTS: Of 357 workers, 65.0% had received more than or equal to 1 BLL test. Among tested workers, 171 (73.7%) had BLLmax more than or equal to 5 µg/dL. Workers who received respirator training or fit testing had a median BLLmax of 18.0 µg/dL, similar to the median BLLmax of workers who did not receive such training (22.6 µg/dL, P = 0.20). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings emphasize the importance of adequate provision and use of PPE to prevent occupational lead exposure.

Association of diabetes with amnestic and nonamnestic mild cognitive impairment.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes may increase the risk of amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI) through Alzheimer's disease (AD)-related and vascular pathology and may also increase the risk of nonamnestic MCI (naMCI) through vascular disease mechanisms. We examined the association of type 2 diabetes with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and MCI subtype (aMCI and naMCI) overall and by sex. METHODS: Participants were Olmsted County, Minnesota residents (70 years and older) enrolled in a prospective, population-based study. At baseline and every 15 months thereafter, participants were evaluated using the Clinical Dementia Rating scale, a neurological evaluation, and neuropsychological testing for a diagnosis of normal cognition, MCI, and dementia by a consensus panel. Type 2 diabetes was ascertained from the medical records of participants at baseline. RESULTS: Over a median 4.0 years of follow-up, 348 of 1450 subjects developed MCI. Type 2 diabetes was associated (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]) with MCI (1.39 [1.08-1.79]), aMCI (1.58 [1.17-2.15]; multiple domain: 1.58 [1.01-2.47]; single domain: 1.49 [1.09-2.05]), and the hazard ratio for naMCI was elevated (1.37 [0.84-2.24]). Diabetes was strongly associated with multiple-domain aMCI in men (2.42 [1.31-4.48]) and an elevated risk of multiple domain naMCI in men (2.11 [0.70-6.33]), and with single domain naMCI in women (2.32 [1.04-5.20]). CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes was associated with an increased risk of MCI in elderly persons. The association of diabetes with MCI may vary with subtype, number of domains, and sex. Prevention and control of diabetes may reduce the risk of MCI and Alzheimer's disease.